Lorenzo Biscontin
We haven’t discussed US-EU tariffs negotiation on Vinophila because we believe there were institutional sources far more qualified to do so.
While I personally consider the agreement reached to be a poor one overall, one that weakens the EU, US tariffs should be taken for what they are: a factor inherent in the external environment that companies are forced to accept as a given and over which they have no control.
It’s therefore worth focusing on analyzing how wineries can navigate the new scenario, seeking new outlets on international markets. For the sake of brevity, I will focus only on markets showing new dynamics, leaving aside established ones like Germany or the UK.
United States
How will the US market react to the introduction of tariffs? To say that it’s difficult to make predictions is both redundant and necessary.
Let’s start by putting some elements together:
– The effect of intermediary margins under the 3-tier system will amplify the 15% increase in prices upon arrival due to the new tariffs, bringing it to around 20%. In the restaurant industry, it will likely be even more so.
– In addition to the tariffs, it should be considered that since the beginning of the year, the US dollar has lost 12% of its value against the euro.
– Even if the American importer is willing to cover half of the increased cost due to tariffs, the combination of the two previous points will easily lead to a shift of European wines into the higher price ranges. According to Nielsen data, for the year ending May 17, 2025, the $8-10.99/btg price range represented 16.9% of the retail market, $11-14.99/btg 22.5%, $15-19.99/btg 10.8%, and $20-24.99/btg 3%. Italian wines will then move into price ranges where purchases are significantly lower than those in which they are found today.
– 72% of wine imported into the US comes from the EU. How easy is it for American consumers to replace Italian wines with wines from the US, Chile, Argentina, New Zealand, or Australia? Probably not very easy, considering that Italian wines are characterized by a uniqueness that derives not only from the terroir, but also from the native grape varieties. In other words, while it may be easy to replace one Chianti Classico with another Chianti Classico, it is more difficult to replace a Chianti Classico with a foreign wine, first of all in terms of its sensory profile. An example of this is Italian Pinot Grigio, which continues to show positive numbers despite the growth of New Zealand Pinot Blanc, which essentially overlaps in terms of target consumers and consumption situations/moments.
– In 2024, wine consumption in the US fell by 8%, accelerating the 3% decline seen in 2023. A recent Gallup survey found that between 2023 and 2025 the % of US adults consuming alcohol decreased from 62% to 54%, with stronger decrease among women (-11%), whites (-11%), and adults with an annual income of more than $100,000 (-13%), main segments for wine consumption.
In this scenario, I see two main strategies for defending your position:
– Communication strategies to increase the perceived value of your wine and thus restore the price/value ratio.
– Expanding your assortment by adding lower-priced alternatives. If your cellar has a second line in your catalog that’s cheaper than the wines currently distributed in the US, it’s probably time to use it. I know there’s a risk of cannibalization, but the risk of being swallowed up by competitors is worse.
Actually, there could also be another option: reducing margins to maintain (as much as possible) the current price positioning. However, this depends on your level of margins and your potential financial capacity, so it’s not a recommended strategy a priori.
Canada
The latest development in Canada, the world’s fourth-largest wine importer by value, is that Canadian consumers have responded to the Trump administration’s “51st state of the Union” rhetoric by eliminating US wines from their tables.
In the first half of 2025, Canada imported $130 million less from US than in 2024. The annual projection is over $250 million less US wine imported in Canada. This is half the size of the Brazilian market and 10 times the size of the Indian market.
The strategy here is simple: intensify work with our Canadian agents to seize every opportunity, even temporary ones, to fill the void left by US wines.
China
Over the past eight years, Chinese wine consumption has plummeted and is now at levels lower than those of 1995.
Even so, China remains the world’s ninth largest importer by volume (just behind Italy) and seventh by value.
Especially since the pandemic, the Chinese market has changed profoundly: drop of wine consumption (especially imported ones) at banquets organized by public administration bodies or involving public officers, decrease of wine purchase for gifting; wine purchase for own consumption and online purchases, including for restaurant consumption, have increased thank to the spread of instant retailing (delivery times from ordering are decreasing from 30 minutes to 15 minutes).
Wine consumers in China are on average younger than those in Western countries (35-44 is the largest segment, 55-64 the smallest), imported wine consumption has surpassed that of Chinese wines, and 50% of wine sales are made online, on general and specialized e-commerce sites, and on social media.
These changes are driving growth in sales of white wines (+8.5% in 2024) and sparkling wines (+18.8% in the first five months of 2025). What hasn’t changed is the Chinese consumer’s preference for sweeter flavors (white wine growth is led by German Riesling, followed by New Zealand Pinot Blanc).
In this new scenario, the market approach must also change. No longer will we find improvised importers who bought five containers of red wine with a beautiful, precious red and yellow label and tried to sell them by the case with astronomical margins, which allowed for tactically, short term exports.
In China today, a strategy is needed in which the online channel is essential. Consequently, traditional activities aimed at commercial intermediaries are ineffective because on TMALL, the brand and/or price prevail.
The recommended time horizon is the medium term (3-5 years).
Brazil
Wine imports into Brazil have been growing since Between 2017 and 2024, when they reached US$518 million. Meanwhile, regular wine consumers have reached 45 million people (2022 IWSR data), and demand has also expanded to include more sensory-complex and expensive wines.
This is a still-growing market (wine imports up 11% in 2024), with the main supplier countries being Chile, Argentina (which enjoy tax advantages as Mercosur members and reduced logistics costs), and Portugal.
Here, the key asset for Italian wine, even if I realize I sound old-fashioned, is Italy’s positive image in the country. I’ll try to summarize this with one figure: annual per capita consumption of pizza in Brazil is 5.8 kg, compared to 7.8 kg in Italy. Moreover, in Brazil, pizza is consumed more in urban areas than in rural areas and by higher-income people than by lower-income people. I.e. the most interesting segments for wine consumption.
The other strong point is the variety and uniqueness of the offering compared to other competing countries.
Be aware that the bureaucratic aspect is not trivial, even for those accustomed to the complexity of Italy.
To give a time horizon, interesting results can be achieved in Brazil even in the short term (1-3 years).
India
The same applies to India as it did to China 15 years ago: the population size is such that it cannot be ignored in any company development strategies.
In reality, it is still a very small wine market, 2024 imports were worth only US$ 26 million. If you are told, or find online, that wine imports exceeds US$ 400 million, don’t believe it: it happened in 2023 due to a 30,000% boom in Spanish wine, which led to an average import price of Spanish wine of US$ 518/l, which no one has been able to explain. In other words, it was a report error.
That said, demand for wine in India is concentrated in metropolitan areas, Driven by young consumers (including women) who see wine as a healthier and more sophisticated alternative to spirits (India is the world’s fifth-largest spirits market by value and the world’s largest whiskey consumer).
These young consumers are also opening their consumption to sparkling wines, rosés, and white wines in addition to traditional red wines (similar to what is happening in China).
Be aware that the sale of alcohol is managed at the individual state level, and in some states alcohol consumption is prohibited. Operationally, this means that wines must also be registered at the state level, similar to what happens in the US.
It’s certainly an interesting country, but one to watch over the long term (more than 5 years).
Africa
The first thing to note is that Africa is not a single country and is much larger than the geographical maps suggest.
Currently, the African countries with the largest wine imports, excluding South Africa, are (2024 data in hundred liters):
– Ivory Coast: 600,000
– Angola: 300,000
– Namibia: 260,000
– Morocco: 250,000
– Togo: 150,000
Cameroon is missing from this ranking, but I feel compelled to mention it both because I exported a few containers there over 10 years ago and, above all, because it is the 12th largest destination market for Bordeaux wines in volume and the 24th largest in value. The Ivory Coast does even better, being the 10th largest destination for Bordeaux wines by value and 21st by volume.
The difference between the positions in volume and value highlights how African countries import wines with a lower average price than the rest of the world. However, it would be wrong to think that these markets are only interested in cheap wines: the most famous champagne houses are present on the Ugandan market, and sparkling wine sales here are expected to exceed US$1 million in 2025.
Demographic forecasts, much more reliable than economic ones, predict that by 2050, the African population will grow from the current 1.4 billion to 2.5 billion, i.e. 1 in 4 people on earth will be African.
I wouldn’t be surprised if some African markets could provide greater success than India in the medium term.
